It is amazing to me how rapidly the world can change. Northern Africa is in upheaval. First Tunisia followed by Egypt. Fortunately booth of those were relatively peaceful revolts by the people and both are wanting a secular representative democracy, even if they don't completely understand what that is.
But Lybia is a whole another matter. At first it looked like the protesters caught Gadhafi off guard and might have been able to over throw him with little resistance. But most likely his sons got into action, as most of them are the commanders of his elite Republican Guard troops, and set out to stop the uprising. I have no doubt that his sons and Gadhafi himself would have slaughtered tens of thousands in retaliation and to annihilate any opposition.
But is this a conflict by the people for freedom and democracy? Or is this the continuation of thousands of years of tribal conflicts that are so prevalent in the Arab world. Only in Tunisia, Egypt, and Morocco had the people overcome tribalism and considered themselves citizens of a collective society. As we have experienced in Iraq, without the heavy hand of Saddam, the tribal battles resumed between, Sunni, Shiite and Kurds. Libya is also a country of many tribes and don't consider themselves necessarily a citizen of defined state. So are the Rebels fighting for freedom or domination?
Muammar Gadhafi is old and probably loosing some mental abilities, but together with his sons can be a formidable enemy. I do think that Muammar would agree to leave -- to a despot resort, maybe joining ousted Egyptian President Mubarak at the Red Sea resort that Mubarak owns, if he could take the money he had taken from the country with him. All the other despots around the world could join them there. But his sons who were very soon going to inherit the wealth of the country and the power of their father will not stand to be exiled. They will fight to the end to retain the power and oil money they enjoy.
Now on the surface the Libyan uprising looks much like the others who want a secular democratic republic. But the potential problem here is that Libya is much the same as Afghanistan in as much as both are tribal countries Gadhifi really controlled the northern third of the country were the oil is and ports are and only by sever police brutality. Some of the rebel fighters want a return to tribal sovereignty, especially those who have the oil wells. Others are more Islamist who would like the country be a pure Muslim theocracy run by the clerics. But there are no strong clerics stepping up to take command of the rebels, so that might not happen. So if Gadhafi is removed from power, what then?
I do have very mixed emotions about the actions taken by President Obama and NATO. Obviously I want the killing stopped. And yes I am hopeful that the rebels are able to form a democratic republic that is strong and sustainable. But we are involved in two other wars in Arab nations that see America as only wanting their oil. Like a suspicious date who thinks you are treating her to dinner only to have sex later, "You only want my body." And the answers are YES and YES.
I am sure that Italy was very concerned about the outcome of what happens in Libya. It receives a huge amount of its oil from Libya. If the oil falls into anti western rebels hands, then that becomes an economic problem exacerbating the suffering from the world wide recession. It is also that northern African nations are within easy missile shot to Italy and Greece with old Russian Scud missiles and some new Chinese made missiles that could put them at great risk should the country become an Iran with Islamist in control.
Then you have the problems in Yemen that is more about civil war than wanting a democratic republic. It is the same battle as in Iraq, the Shiite against the Sunni Muslims. Plus Yemen has been the staging ground for Al-Qaeda operatives to launch terrorists campaigns against America and Europe. The current despot has at least given American intelligence some help in stopping some planned attacks. But has been unable to do much else, given the constant infighting within the country between the two Islamic theologies and the smaller tribal overlords.
Will all these uprising reach a point that within the Arab world that a great clash begins between the different Islamic factions, ethnic groups, tribes and whatever, so we end up with another World War in an attempt to preserve the vast oil reserves the world needs. Or will we let them battle it out? The latter could be a problem, since we have armed several of these nations with weapons and trained their military in tactics.
What makes these countries so different than the change that occurred in Eastern Europe with the collapse of the Soviet Union, is in the Iron Block were countries that had central governments and relative ethnic cohesiveness. The Arab nations are, as they have always been for thousands of years, tribal groups, who have never really wanted any organized central government system, with the exception maybe of Egypt now. Every Arab nation there are battles between the ruling government and the many tribes. Fear has been the only effective method these despots have used to maintain some semblance of peace between the tribes. Once that fear is gone, as it was in Iraq, they take up arms and battle. Even during the expansive Ottoman Empire rule over these lands, they allowed continued autonomy of the various ethnic and religious tribes that wandered the land.
Britain obtained control form the failed Ottoman Empire in 1924 and created the Arab countries as we know them today, granting kingdom to the then prominent tribal leaders. All of these kingdoms had to use tyranny as a way to control the many tribes now under their control. America's policy as been to try to foster friendly relations with these despots to have access to their oil and navigable trade routes. The world has become so much smaller now. What happens in these small countries effects all countries. It would be ideal if by some magic way, all nations of the world were forced into secular democratic republics with close economic ties that bind them together in peaceful cooperation for the good of all. But as long as there are despots and other forms of oppressive governments on earth, there will be battles for dominance over others you do not like or are different than your tribe.
Humans have advanced greatly with technology, but for the most part live in tribal mode emotionally.
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